What to Expect this Winter in Terms of Weather Outlook
Winter is rapidly approaching, and the 13 Weather Impact Team has developed the Winter Weather Outlook for 2024-2025 based on this season’s data.
It is important to note that several factors shape the winter forecast, including large-scale patterns, climate change, and even Lake Michigan.
Patterns All Over the World
Globally, we are expecting a weak La Nia this winter. Winter patterns are affected by this phenomenon broader and longer-term.
La Niña winters in West Michigan typically feature warmer October and November, colder weather in December, and colder conditions in February As a result, models predict a less strong La Nia this season, which will diminish its influence on winter forecasts.
Arctic Oscillation is another circulation pattern that affects high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and lasts a few days to a few weeks.
Cold air can easily plunge into the Midwest when the Arctic Oscillation is negative. Polar vortices are short dips in very cold air.
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Interactions With Climate
Winter forecasting cannot ignore the impact of our changing climate. Seventy-four percent of the United States are experiencing faster warming during the winter, including West Michigan.
Grand Rapids’ winters have gotten nearly 6 degrees warmer since 1970 because of climate change.
In Grand Rapids, above-normal temperatures have occurred for 22 days. Great Lakes ice coverage has decreased due to this warming trend.
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Influences From The Local Area
As winter Outlook warms, the Great Lakes are less likely to form ice, resulting in more open water that fuels lake-effect precipitation.
Between 1973 and 2023, the annual peak ice cover decreased by 14.93%. As of Jan. 21, ice coverage was only 18.3%, well below the historical average.
As less ice forms and the water warms, there is a higher likelihood that lake-effect snow or rain will occur. It’s possible to get rain instead of snow in warm weather Outlook.
Winter last year had above-average precipitation, but nearly 2 feet less snow than usual. Snowfall totals alone are difficult to forecast from a seasonal outlook viewpoint.
Weather Outlook for 2024-2025
In contrast to the winter of 2023-2024, the winter of 2024 was colder and snowier than average. Whatever the weather, the 13 Weather Outlook Impact Team will keep you informed.
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