Southern Ontario Faces an icy Start to the Week with Prolonged Freezing Rain

Southern Ontario has experienced a cold and snowy start to December, as a significant lake-effect snow squall outbreak blanketed parts of the snowbelt. Wintry weather brought wind chills as low as -20°C thanks to the first blast of Arctic air of the season.

Southwestern Ontario, however, is experiencing milder weather, with daytime highs in the mid to upper teens on Sunday.

Early Monday, warmer air will be brought aloft while near-surface temperatures hover around freezing. Central and eastern Ontario may experience extended periods of freezing rain thanks to this setup.

There is a possibility of freezing rain beginning Monday morning, lasting through the afternoon and evening.

During this prolonged event, ice could form on untreated surfaces, including roads, sidewalks, trees, and power lines, resulting in local power outages.

Precipitation will move into Deep Southwest Ontario during the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Throughout the day, the temperature in this region will remain above freezing, so precipitation here is likely to occur as rain.

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The system will move north and east during the morning, encountering below-freezing temperatures near the surface during its advance north and east.

A freezing rain zone will develop from Orangeville eastward through York Region, along the Oak Ridges Moraine’s higher elevations, and into southern Ontario.

Several areas are expected to experience heavy impacts, including Barrie, Orillia, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, and Belleville.

Starting early Monday afternoon, Muskoka, Bancroft, and the Ottawa Valley will receive a mixture of wet snow, ice pellets, and freezing rain.

Southern Ontario is not expected to receive significant snowfall, but slushy and slippery roads are possible.

As freezing rain ends later in the afternoon, freezing drizzle may persist into the evening. Increasing temperatures overnight and later this evening should gradually melt any accumulated ice.

Greater amounts of freezing rain are forecast for Central and Eastern Ontario into Monday evening.

Nevertheless, freezing drizzle may persist in the Ottawa Valley into early Tuesday morning, potentially causing icy commute conditions.

Lake Simcoe and the Lake Ontario shoreline are expected to be the most significantly affected by freezing rain.

In places like Orangeville, Newmarket, Collingwood, Barrie, Orillia, Midland, Bracebridge, Lindsay, Peterborough, Oshawa, Belleville, and Kingston, ice may accumulate up to 5mm.

Throughout Central and Eastern Ontario, including the Ottawa Valley, snow and ice pellets are expected, with up to 2mm of ice accretion.

GTA’s northern and eastern regions are likely to be most affected by freezing rain. In the morning, freezing rain may occur in Toronto, but it will quickly change to rain near the lake.

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