Snow begins to fall as Arctic air Sweeps Across the UK for the First time this Season
The United Kingdom may see its first wintry weather from Sunday as Arctic air heads our way.
Although some misleading headlines make it seem that the snow can be forecast many days in advance, it’s not as easy as it seems.
Forecast models do indicate that a colder spell with snow will be more likely, but these predictions are subject to uncertainty. How do the headlines compare to the facts?
Temperatures are Expected to Drop
Can we expect a wall of snow and a freeze in Britain after stories suggest we are in for a “wall of snow”?
Northerly winds are likely to develop later this weekend and into next week. Temperatures would be below average across the UK as cold Arctic air is brought in.
Across the UK on Sunday, maximum temperatures are expected in the range of 3-8 Celsius. Temperatures are expected to drop close to freezing on Monday morning, causing widespread ground frost.
Predictions about this part of the forecast can be fairly predictable. After the anticyclonic gloom has kept us in the dark so far in November, we may see some sunshine this week. I am not as certain about the snow as I am about the rain.
Although sleet and snow may fall in some parts of the UK, we won’t know where and how much until the next couple of days.
Considering these weather conditions, we should expect wintry showers across Scotland and northern England, with snow over mountain tops and maybe sleet in lower elevations. As far as the weather is concerned, the end of November is not unusual.
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Misleading Headlines Should be Avoided
Many organizations provide free, public forecast models, so sometimes a single run of a weather model some time away results in some exhilarating headlines about snow.
When we look at these headlines, we need to keep in mind that weather forecasting is a tricky science and long-range forecasts are not always accurate.
While forecast accuracy has improved hugely over the years, we know it decreases as we move closer to the forecast period.
ECMWF, the UK Met Office, and the American Global Forecast System are among the others that we use for weather forecasts.
It is possible that the forecasts provided by these models, using different maths and physics, can diverge over time, showing a range of outcomes.
For forecasts longer than five to seven days, this is especially true.
If other forecast models do not indicate the same thing, then suggesting there will be a large amount of snow in the UK in 10 days is misleading.
Having said that, I don’t believe one model run is incorrect or the forecast provided is “fake news” since there is a slight possibility of accuracy.
The most likely forecast, however, must be based on all the available data as well as understanding the uncertainties.
Nevertheless, I’m certain of one thing: you’ll read and see more about snow as we enter winter.
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