Hurricane Rafael landfalls in Cuba with life-threatening effects

Rafael, the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, hit western Cuba on Wednesday afternoon as a major hurricane of category 3.

Rafael, although it has since weakened to a Category 2 hurricane, will continue to bring life-threatening storm surges, damaging winds, and flash floods. Based on Reuters’ reports, the entire island remains powerless as of Wednesday evening.

The Cayman Islands, as well as Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, are subject to a hurricane warning. Cuba’s provinces of Villa Clara and Cienfuegos are also under a tropical storm warning.

In southern Florida, a tropical storm warning has been issued for Rafael, which will eventually move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and cause heavy rain and stormy conditions, including tornadoes.

In western Cuba, hurricane Rafael made landfall Wednesday afternoon as a Category 3 storm. Currently, it is a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 170 km/h and higher gusts.

In the evening of Wednesday, most of Cuba was without power due to the winds associated with Rafael. Rafael is located on Cuba’s northern coast at 6 p.m. EST on Wednesday.

In the Western Caribbean, heavy rainfall will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and parts of Cuba’s southern and western regions through early Thursday.

It is forecast that rain totals between 100 and 200 mm will fall, with isolated higher totals reached up to 300 mm in areas of higher terrain. Floods and mudslides could be caused by these significant rainfall totals.

Cayman Islands residents should expect an additional 50-100mm of rain this week.

Onshore winds along Cuba’s southern coast could cause storm surges to elevate water levels by up to 3.5 metres. Included in that is the Isle of Youth. During Rafael’s swell, there is a possibility of life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon based on the forecast track. During the night, Rafael is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

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In the southern United States, landfall locations and impacts remain uncertain, but heavy rain is forecast to spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the U.S Southeast by late week. As Rafael moves northwest, a dominant Bermuda high will assist in steering it away from most of Florida.

Tornadoes may occur in regions of strongest, most organized convection, particularly in the Keys. In the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, rainfall totals are expected to range from 25-75mm.

A spaghetti model shows divergent routes to the Gulf states, suggesting that impacts will be highly uncertain. The storm may loop into Louisiana or travel west into Mexico depending on its path.

As a ridge forms by the weekend, guidance may be shifted farther west into next week, impacting Texas or Mexico.

Hurricane activity slowed down in August, which is unusual. There is a peak in hurricane season around September 10. After a quiet start to the season, tropical activity accelerated at the end of the season with several storms named since Sept. 24. Phillip Klotzbach describes this as a record.

Although the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, storms can still form afterward.

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Hurricane Rafael made headlines for its strength, which reached speeds of over 130 miles per hour. Hurricanes with a category of four present catastrophic risks, often resulting in damage that lasts for years and affecting the lives of people.

In the Caribbean, many had not seen a storm like this for years, partly because of the storm’s massive diameter and the possibility of storm surges, heavy rainfall, and flooding.

Hurricane Rafael’s landfall in Cuba reshaped the landscape and impacted countless lives. As a result of strong winds, heavy flooding, and widespread damage, the country has faced many challenges. Cuba’s resilience and emergency response capabilities will be critical to its rebuilding and preparation for what lies ahead as it begins its recovery.

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